Fuzzy Modeling of the Business Recessions

Abstract

The paper is a study of a business recessions. On the ground of the actual financial crisis, which has broad international influence, many questions about possibilities of efficient solutions of the economic recessions have been opened. In the economics history is possible to find many examples of business recessions and more or less successful solution methods. Each recession has several analogical characters with other recessions. The similarity of the recessions is utilized in this study as the base for fuzzy model of the business recessions. The fuzzy logic is very useful tool for modeling, because absolute as well as relative quantitative indicators can be used in the model. The fuzzy model of the business recession is based on the data of the American's recessions and also covers the data about the Japanese crisis and one example of the Czech business recession. The model was utilized for research of the recessions' similarities and for the prediction of the aspect of the future business recessions.